xG

تعریف

Expected goals (xG) assigns a probability to a shot based on features such as location, angle, body part, and sometimes pressure or assist type. An xG of 0.25 means similar historical shots become goals about one time in four — not that this specific shot “should” score.

xG is strongest as a process descriptor over samples and weakest as a single-match courtroom verdict. Models differ by vendor; small samples are noisy; build-up quality before the shot is only partly visible in many public models.