Careful essays
Concepts
In-depth essays on analysis ideas — careful, evidence-minded, non-hype.
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Limits of xG in a single match
8 minWhy expected goals is a process estimate, not a courtroom verdict on one fixture — and how to write claims that survive scrutiny.
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How to read progressive passes without overclaiming
7 minProgressive passes measure advance toward goal. They do not, by themselves, prove superiority, intent, or shot quality.
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Common mistakes when interpreting PPDA and pressing numbers
8 minPPDA is a useful proxy for defensive engagement height and intensity — and easy to misread when sample, opponent, and game state are ignored.
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Process vs outcome in single-match analysis
9 minHow to separate chance quality, territory, and defensive behaviour from the scoreline — without pretending one fixture settles the argument.
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Why xG is not enough
9 minExpected goals is a shot model. It is silent about threatening possessions that never become a shot — and it is not a verdict on who deserved the result.
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Reading transitions carefully
9 minEvent data can sketch recoveries and whether the next actions progressed. It cannot see rest-defence sprints or prove fatigue. Keep the definitions small enough to defend.
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Half-spaces without mystique
8 minThe half-space is a useful pitch zone for describing where progression and chances occur. It is not a philosophy, a formation, or a proof of sophistication.
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Possession value without hype
8 minPossession percentage answers who had the ball. Possession-value thinking asks whether that ball was useful. Keep the question; drop the marketing.
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For short definitions, see the Glossary