Match Analysis / FIFA World Cup 2022
Round of 16 · December 5, 2022
Brazil 4–1 South Korea
Brazil won in regulation
New here? This page uses terms like xG, PPDA, and progressive passes. The free Foundations lesson explains them in a few minutes. Continue on the Learn path →
Stadium 974 · StatsBomb Open Data
Why this match is useful for learning
- Brazil won 4–1. The xG Timeline shows a large combined-xG gap — open play and set pieces together — of about 3.26 to 0.34, with four first-half goals, including a penalty. Progressive-pass share is similar (~20% vs ~20%); shot quality is not. Recoveries are almost even (~51 vs ~52). When a team loses the ball, sometimes the opponent progresses or shoots within ten seconds — that share is the negative transition rate. Korea’s rate is higher (~39% vs ~25%): after they lose the ball, Brazil more often progress or shoot in the window. Brazil’s positive rate is only slightly higher (~59% vs ~54%). Count the window. Do not turn it into a fitness ranking or a verdict that the scoreline was inevitable.
Match context
Brazil scored four times in the first half: Vinícius Júnior around 7′, a Neymar penalty around 12′, Richarlison around 28′ from a high-xG open-play attempt, and Lucas Paquetá around 36′ from a lower-xG attempt. Paik Seung-ho’s goal around 76′ is a very low-xG shot (0.03).
The in-match penalty is a high-xG restart. Do not describe all of Brazil’s 3.26 xG as open-play build-up. There is no penalty shoot-out in this file.
Regulation (first half and second half)
Figures below cover regulation. The in-match penalty is included in shots and xG, as on the other teaching matches. It is not a shoot-out. Transition rates use the 10-second window after a StatsBomb possession change.
- Brazil
- 18 shots · 4 goals · ~3.26 xG
- Progressive passes: 114 (20.1% of passes)
- South Korea
- 8 shots · 1 goal · ~0.34 xG
- Progressive passes: 93 (19.5% of passes)
Visual 1
xG Timeline
Brazil finish far ahead on combined xG (open play and set pieces together) (~3.26 to ~0.34). Four first-half goals sit on that climb, including a penalty. South Korea’s line barely moves until a late low-xG goal (~0.03). This chart is not a verdict on the result.
The line adds xG when a shot is recorded. A flat stretch means no shot, not that nothing happened. This is not xT and not a possession-value chart. The line is not a verdict on the result.
- 6′ · Brazil · Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior · 0.13 xG
- 12′ · Brazil · Neymar da Silva Santos Junior · 0.78 xG
- 28′ · Brazil · Richarlison de Andrade · 0.54 xG
- 35′ · Brazil · Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima · 0.09 xG
- 75′ · South Korea · Seung-Ho Paik · 0.02 xG
How to read this
- Mark Brazil’s first-half cluster against South Korea’s isolated 0.03 xG goal around 76′. Only a recorded shot moves this line.
- Separate the goal types: Vinícius Júnior’s opener is modest-xG open play; Neymar’s penalty is a high-xG restart; Richarlison’s chance is high-xG open play; Paquetá’s goal is a lower-xG conversion.
- Progressive-pass share is almost equal (~20% vs ~20%). Chance quality and pass share are different questions.
Limitations
- xG describes historical shot types. It does not measure build-up quality before the shot.
- A goal marker shows when the ball entered the net, not whether that chance was high xG. Paik’s goal is the reminder.
- The in-match penalty is part of this process. It is a restart with a distinct xG, not open-play build-up.
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Visual 2
Half vs half
First half: Brazil have 2.47 xG and four goals from 10 shots. South Korea have 0.07 xG from four shots. Second half: Brazil have 0.79 xG with no goal. South Korea have 0.28 xG and one very low-xG goal. Progressive-pass volume stays similar by half. Read the first-half and second-half numbers. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table.
| Metric | First half | Second half | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | South Korea | Brazil | South Korea | |
| xG | 2.47 | 0.07 | 0.79 | 0.28 |
| shots | 10 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Progressive passes | 55 | 48 | 59 | 45 |
| PPDA | 40.33† | 34.5 | 26.17 | 20.25 |
The table splits the same process by half: shots, xG, progressive passes. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table. Read shots and xG together. Then ask how much came from open play vs set pieces.
PPDA (teaching definition): opponent passes starting in their own half ÷ Tackle + Interception + Foul Committed by this team in the opponent’s half. A dash or † means the sample of defensive actions is empty or tiny — often a deep block, not a physical ranking. Do not read half changes as proven fatigue.
How to read this
- Brazil’s second-half progressive count stays high while shot value drops. Advancement can continue without the shot process exploding.
- Brazil’s first-half PPDA rests on only three opponent-half defensive actions — too thin for a fitness ranking.
- South Korea’s second-half PPDA is lower, with more opponent-half defensive actions. After 4–0, score state is an allowed hypothesis.
Limitations
- Half splits are still small samples. A quiet second half does not prove a structural law.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy (see footnote). A thin denominator is often a deep block, not a physical ranking.
- Event data has no distance run. Do not read a second-half change as proof of tiredness.
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Visual 3
Transition board
Recoveries are almost even (51 vs 52). Brazil’s positive rate is about 59% versus South Korea’s 54%. South Korea’s negative rate is about 39% versus Brazil’s 25%. This is an event-data window, not tracking. It does not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
Brazil
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 51
- Positive transitions
- 30 (58.8%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 52
- Negative transitions
- 13 (25%)
South Korea
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 52
- Positive transitions
- 28 (53.8%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 51
- Negative transitions
- 20 (39.2%)
Recovery = new possession after the opponent had the ball. Turnover = that possession ends. Positive rate = share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a progressive pass or a shot. Negative rate = share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window. It is not a fitness ranking.
Window: 10s after recovery/turnover for a progressive pass or shot. Approximate event-data proxies — not tracking. They do not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
How to read this
- Brazil’s positive rate is about 59%; South Korea’s is about 54%.
- South Korea’s negative rate is about 39%; Brazil’s is about 25%. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window.
- Even recovery counts beside a wide xG gap create the teaching tension. Winning the ball is not the same as creating a shot. These rates are not a verdict on the result.
Limitations
- Recoveries and turnovers are inferred from StatsBomb possession changes. Restarts and fouls make the counts approximate.
- “Positive” only means a Progressive Pass or shot followed within 10 seconds. It is not proof of a planned counter-attack.
- Event data has no sprint distances and no continuous off-ball picture of how a team is set when possession is lost.
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Visual 4
Shot map
Brazil’s markers show volume and several high-quality locations (~18 shots, ~3.26 xG) with four goals. South Korea’s fewer attempts (~8 shots, ~0.34 xG) include one very low-xG goal. Read location with how the chance started. Treat the penalty as a restart, not open-play craft.
How to read this
- Start with location and quality. Brazil’s completed-pass edge is modest (566 vs 476). The shot process is the story.
- Mark the penalty separately. A high-xG restart is part of the process; it is not evidence about open-play build-up.
- Locate Richarlison’s high-xG open-play goal versus Paquetá’s lower-xG conversion versus Paik’s 0.03 xG goal. South Korea recorded eight shots; their shot-quality sample stayed small beside Brazil’s.
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Visual 5
Pass network
Brazil’s network is denser, but South Korea still circulate. Density measures combination frequency. It does not explain a ~3.26-to-~0.34 xG gap by itself.
How to read this
- Look for Brazilian hubs between build-up and the final third. Frequent combinations can support territorial presence. They do not automatically produce box chances.
- South Korea’s lighter graph can still show real circulation. A thinner network is not proof that they did not try to play.
- Game state matters. After 4–0 the picture averages a hunt and a manage-the-clock phase into one graph.
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Visual 6
Progressive passes
A Progressive Pass is a completed pass with at least ~12 metres of forward gain on the StatsBomb x-axis. Brazil complete more in absolute terms (~114 vs ~93). Progressive share is almost identical (~20% vs ~20%). Advancement rate can look similar while shot value does not.
How to read this
- Separate absolute progressive volume from progressive share. Here the share barely differs; the Shot Map still differs a lot.
- A Progressive Pass inside 10 seconds of a recovery counts toward the positive transition rate. A Progressive Pass later in a settled possession does not.
- Similar progressive shares can sit beside unequal shot processes. Quote the layer you mean.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 7
Average positions
Average Positions compress a 4–0 first half and a quieter second half into one picture. Use them with Heatmaps as a territorial hypothesis. Then check the Shot Map before claiming control.
How to read this
- Brazilian averages often sit higher when on-ball actions cluster toward South Korea’s goal. That is involvement location, not a chalkboard formation for every second.
- Heatmaps (below) show density piles that a single average point can hide — especially for wide attackers or late substitutes.
- Do not read a deeper South Korean average as a value judgment. After 4–0 the average mixes a block, a chase, and substitutions.
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Putting it together
A short report should separate Brazil’s shot-process lead from their modest pass-volume edge. It should name the first-half cluster, including the penalty as a restart. It should treat South Korea’s higher negative transition rate as a timed event-data window, not a fitness ranking.
If you are following the Learn path, write five supported sentences from these visuals. Then note what still needs video: how each team was set after turnovers, and delivery type on the decisive chances.
Practice prompt
In 150–200 words: write one claim about Brazil’s shot process versus pass share, one claim about South Korea’s turnovers using the 10-second transition definition, and one limitation of reading the second half from event data alone. Link each claim to a visual above.
Event data from StatsBomb’s public World Cup 2022 release. Coordinates use StatsBomb’s pitch model.