xT

Definition

A pass into the box may raise threat before any shot exists. Expected Threat is not a shot model. The sketch is to divide the pitch into zones, or define a ball state. Then estimate how often possession from that state leads to a goal before the ball is lost. A pass or carry receives the change in that rate, often called delta xT. A backward pass can have negative xT. Once a shot is recorded, models such as xG take over.

Public xT grids differ in zone size and set-piece treatment. VAEP and OBV are related action-value families with different state definitions. They are not the same as xT. StatsBomb Open Data does not ship a ready-made xT column. StarkPitch does not print an xT table. Progressive Pass, about 12 metres forward, is a transparent open-data cousin. It is not a substitute.