StarkPitch Expected Goals
xG
A model estimate of how often a shot of a given type becomes a goal in historical data.
Definition
Expected goals (xG) assigns a probability to a shot based on features such as location, angle, body part, and sometimes pressure or assist type. An xG of 0.25 means similar historical shots become goals about one time in four — not that this specific shot “should” score.
xG is strongest as a process descriptor over samples and weakest as a single-match courtroom verdict. Models differ by vendor; small samples are noisy; build-up quality before the shot is only partly visible in many public models.
Caution
Do not treat an xG edge in one fixture as proof of who deserved the result. Keep shoot-out periods separate from open-play process totals.