Match Analysis / FIFA World Cup 2022
Round of 16 · December 3, 2022
Netherlands 3–1 United States
Netherlands won in regulation
New here? This page uses terms like xG, PPDA, and progressive passes. The free Foundations lesson explains them in a few minutes. Continue on the Learn path →
Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium · StatsBomb Open Data
Why this match is useful for learning
- The Netherlands finished 3–1 against the United States in regulation. Combined xG (open play and set pieces together) slightly favours the United States (~1.65 vs ~1.48). Open-play xG keeps only shots from open play: the Netherlands’ open-play process is larger (~1.14 vs ~0.36). The United States’ set-piece sample is heavier (~1.29 from ten shots). There are no in-match penalties. Split the shot list before talking about the scoreline. A larger combined number is not a verdict on the result.
Match context
The Netherlands lead 2–0 at the break. Depay scores around 10′ from open play (~0.16). Blind scores around 46′ from a throw-in sequence (~0.25). Wright scores from a corner sequence around 75′ (~0.36). Dumfries answers around 80′ from open play (~0.24). There is no penalty in the process sample.
For teaching, treat regulation as the process sample. Do not fold ten United States set-piece shots into an open-play volume story.
Regulation
Figures below cover regulation. There are no in-match penalties. Open-play and set-piece notes use StatsBomb shot phase labels. Penalty and Free Kick count as restarts. From Corner, From Free Kick, and From Throw In count as set-piece phases. Regular Play and similar live-ball patterns count as open play.
- Netherlands
- 11 shots · 3 goals · ~1.48 xG
- Progressive passes: 88 (26.5% of passes)
- United States
- 18 shots · 1 goal · ~1.65 xG
- Progressive passes: 109 (21.8% of passes)
Visual 1
xG Timeline
The United States finish slightly ahead on combined xG (open play and set pieces together) (~1.65 vs ~1.48). The Netherlands’ line moves earlier through two first-half goals, then again through Dumfries. This chart is not a verdict on the result.
The line adds xG when a shot is recorded. A flat stretch means no shot, not that nothing happened. This is not xT and not a possession-value chart. The line is not a verdict on the result.
- 9′ · Netherlands · Memphis Depay · 0.16 xG
- 45′ · Netherlands · Daley Blind · 0.25 xG
- 75′ · United States · Haji Wright · 0.36 xG
- 80′ · Netherlands · Denzel Dumfries · 0.24 xG
How to read this
- Mark phase, not only height. Most of the United States’ combined total is set-piece sequences (~1.29 xG). Most of the Netherlands’ combined total is open play (~1.14 xG).
- Compare goal markers with quality. Depay (~0.16) and Dumfries (~0.24) are open-play conversions. Blind (~0.25) and Wright (~0.36) are set-piece sequences.
- A flat stretch means no shots, not no football. Possession without a shot will not move this line.
Limitations
- xG describes historical shot types. It does not measure build-up quality before the shot.
- A goal marker shows when the ball entered the net, not whether that chance was high xG.
- There is no penalty in this file. Restart xG here is corners, throw-ins, and free-kick sequences.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 2
Half vs half
First half: Netherlands have 0.49 xG from four shots and two goals. The United States have 0.42 xG from three shots and no goal. Second half: Netherlands have 0.99 xG from seven shots and the third goal. The United States have 1.23 xG from 15 shots and the corner reply. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table.
| Metric | First half | Second half | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | United States | Netherlands | United States | |
| xG | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| shots | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| Progressive passes | 39 | 57 | 49 | 52 |
| PPDA | 85.5† | 38.75 | 17.86 | 34 |
The table splits the same process by half: shots, xG, progressive passes. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table. Read shots and xG together. Then ask how much came from open play vs set pieces.
PPDA (teaching definition): opponent passes starting in their own half ÷ Tackle + Interception + Foul Committed by this team in the opponent’s half. A dash or † means the sample of defensive actions is empty or tiny — often a deep block, not a physical ranking. Do not read half changes as proven fatigue.
How to read this
- The United States’ second-half shot jump (3 → 15) is easy to misread as an open-play awakening. Ten of their 18 shots are set-piece sequences. Label restarts before claiming a territorial surge.
- Progressive Passes stay in a similar band by half: Netherlands 39 then 49, United States 57 then 52. Advancement can continue without combined xG being an open-play story.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy. A thin denominator is too weak for a fitness ranking.
Limitations
- Half splits are still small samples. A 0.2 xG swing in open play is usually too thin to treat as a structural law.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy (see footnote). A very high value often means too few defensive actions in the opponent’s half.
- Event data has no distance run. Do not read a second-half change as proof of tiredness.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 3
Transition board
Recoveries are even (56 vs 56). Positive rates are close (~55% vs ~54%). Negative rates are close too (~41% vs ~43%). The phase split lives in shot type, not in who won the 10-second window.
Netherlands
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 56
- Positive transitions
- 31 (55.4%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 56
- Negative transitions
- 23 (41.1%)
United States
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 56
- Positive transitions
- 30 (53.6%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 56
- Negative transitions
- 24 (42.9%)
Recovery = new possession after the opponent had the ball. Turnover = that possession ends. Positive rate = share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a progressive pass or a shot. Negative rate = share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window. It is not a fitness ranking.
Window: 10s after recovery/turnover for a progressive pass or shot. Approximate event-data proxies — not tracking. They do not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
How to read this
- Positive transition rate: share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a Progressive Pass (~12 m forward) or a shot.
- Negative transition rate: share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. Higher is more costly in this window.
- Even recovery counts beside a combined-xG lead for the United States make sense once restarts dominate one team’s shot value.
Limitations
- Recoveries and turnovers are inferred from StatsBomb possession changes. Restarts and fouls make the counts approximate.
- “Positive” only means a Progressive Pass or shot followed within 10 seconds. It is not proof of a planned counter-attack.
- Event data has no sprint distances and no continuous off-ball picture.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 4
Shot map
The United States’ markers include a large restart cluster: ten set-piece-sequence shots (~1.29 combined xG). The Netherlands’ smaller sample includes two open-play goals and Blind’s throw-in finish. Read location with phase.
How to read this
- Start with location and quality, then ask how the chance started. Ten United States dots tied to corners, free kicks, and throw-ins are restarts.
- Mark Depay’s and Dumfries’ open-play goals against Wright’s corner-sequence reply. Conversion can sit in either column.
- The United States recorded 18 shots, the Netherlands 11. The honest sentence is that United States quality is concentrated in restarts, while the Netherlands’ open-play sample is the larger of the two.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 5
Pass network
The United States’ network is denser on more completed passes (~499 vs ~332). Density measures combination frequency. It does not explain the combined-xG gap by itself. Most of that gap is restarts, and the Netherlands still have the larger open-play xG sample.
How to read this
- Look for United States hubs between build-up and the final third. Frequent combinations can support territorial presence. They do not automatically produce open-play box chances.
- The Netherlands’ lighter graph can still show real circulation. A thinner network is not proof that they did not try to play.
- Game state matters: the picture averages a 0–0, a 1–0, a 2–0, a 2–1, and a 3–1 into one graph.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 6
Progressive passes
The United States complete more Progressive Passes in absolute terms (~109 vs ~88) on more completed passes. Progressive share favours the Netherlands (~27% vs ~22%). Combined xG still favours the United States because of restarts. Advancement rate, pass volume, and shot-phase mix are three separate questions.
How to read this
- Separate absolute progressive volume from progressive share. Here the Netherlands’ share is higher; the United States’ completed-pass volume is higher; the United States’ combined xG is higher because of set-piece sequences.
- Trace end zones. Progression that dies outside the box is different from progression that feeds open-play shot locations.
- A Progressive Pass is a completed pass with at least ~12 metres of forward gain on the StatsBomb x-axis. It is not Expected Threat (xT).
Related Learn lessons
Visual 7
Average positions
Average Positions compress 0–0, 2–0, and 3–1 states into one picture. Use them with Heatmaps as a territorial hypothesis. Then check the Shot Map with set-piece and open-play labels before claiming control.
How to read this
- United States averages may sit higher when on-ball actions cluster toward the Netherlands’ goal. That is involvement location, not proof of open-play chance quality.
- Heatmaps (below) show density piles that a single average point can hide — especially for wide attackers or late substitutes.
- Form a question about height of involvement, then verify on video. StarkPitch does not print a Field Tilt number on this page.
Related Learn lessons
Putting it together
A responsible short report should separate the United States’ combined-xG lead from their open-play xG deficit. Name Wright’s goal as a corner sequence and Blind’s goal as a throw-in sequence.
If you are following the Learn path, write five supported sentences from these visuals. Then note what still needs video, especially delivery type on the corner.
Practice prompt
In 150–200 words: write one claim about combined xG versus open-play xG, one claim that treats Wright’s goal as a set-piece sequence rather than extra build-up, and one limitation of reading the second-half shot burst from event data alone. Link each claim to a visual above.
Glossary
Event data from StatsBomb’s public World Cup 2022 release. Coordinates use StatsBomb’s pitch model.