Penalty kick
Penalty
A high-xG restart during a match; shoot-outs are a separate exercise.
Definition
An in-match penalty is a dead-ball shot from the spot. Public xG models usually give it a high probability, often around 0.75-0.80 in this World Cup file. It is a real part of a shot-process sample. It is not extra open-play build-up through a half-space.
A penalty shoot-out is different. In StatsBomb World Cup 2022 files, it is period 5. StarkPitch process samples exclude period 5. That keeps shoot-out attempts from rewriting regulation and extra-time xG. Missing an in-match penalty does not remove its xG from the clock. The model described the shot type, not a promise.
Caution
Do not mix shoot-out penalties into open-play or in-match process totals. Do not call two penalties 1.6 xG of attacking play. They are two high-xG restarts.