Match Analysis / Premier League 2015/16
Matchweek 19 · December 29, 2015
Leicester City 0–0 Manchester City
0–0 in regulation
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King Power Stadium · StatsBomb Open Data
Why this match is useful for learning
- Leicester City finished 0–0 with Manchester City in regulation. Combined xG (open play and set pieces together) favours City (~1.70 vs ~0.89). Open-play xG keeps only shots from open play: Leicester’s open-play process is larger (~0.68 vs ~0.55). City’s combined lead is restart-heavy (~1.13 from set-piece sequences). There are no goals and no penalties. A blank scoreline is not a blank file. A larger combined number is not a verdict on the result.
Match context
Matchweek 19 at King Power Stadium finishes 0–0. City record 20 shots to Leicester’s 12. No process-sample goals appear on the xG Timeline. There is no extra time and no penalty in this file.
For teaching, treat regulation as the process sample. A 0–0 can still have a phase split between combined xG and open-play xG.
Regulation
Figures below cover regulation. There are no in-match penalties and no goals in the process sample. Open-play and set-piece splits use StatsBomb shot phase labels. Progressive Pass counts are completed passes with at least 12 m forward gain.
- Leicester City
- 12 shots · 0 goals · ~0.89 xG
- Progressive passes: 54 (24% of passes)
- Manchester City
- 20 shots · 0 goals · ~1.7 xG
- Progressive passes: 92 (22.5% of passes)
Visual 1
xG Timeline
Manchester City finish ahead on combined xG (open play and set pieces together) (~1.70 vs ~0.89) with no goal markers. The line is a shot-value clock on a 0–0. This chart is not a verdict on the result.
The line adds xG when a shot is recorded. A flat stretch means no shot, not that nothing happened. This is not xT and not a possession-value chart. The line is not a verdict on the result.
No process-sample goals in this event file (shoot-out excluded).
How to read this
- Mark phase, not only height. City’s combined total is mostly set-piece sequences (~1.13 xG from eleven shots). Leicester’s open-play xG (~0.68) is the larger open-play sample.
- There are no goal markers to argue about. You cannot hide the phase split behind a famous finish.
- A flat stretch means no shots, not an empty match. Possession without a shot will not move this line.
Limitations
- xG describes historical shot types. It does not measure build-up quality before the shot.
- No goal marker appears in this process sample. Conversion noise is still present as missed shots.
- Both totals are single-match samples. A 0.81 combined xG gap without a goal is still not a verdict.
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Visual 2
Half vs half
First half: Leicester have 0.59 xG from six shots. City have 0.63 xG from ten shots. Second half: Leicester have 0.30 xG from six shots. City have 1.06 xG from ten shots. City’s second-half combined xG rise is real. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table.
| Metric | First half | Second half | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City | Manchester City | Leicester City | Manchester City | |
| xG | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.30 | 1.06 |
| shots | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Progressive passes | 27 | 59 | 27 | 33 |
| PPDA | 20.43 | 15.29 | 23 | 12 |
The table splits the same process by half: shots, xG, progressive passes. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table. Read shots and xG together. Then ask how much came from open play vs set pieces.
PPDA (teaching definition): opponent passes starting in their own half ÷ Tackle + Interception + Foul Committed by this team in the opponent’s half. A dash or † means the sample of defensive actions is empty or tiny — often a deep block, not a physical ranking. Do not read half changes as proven fatigue.
How to read this
- City’s second-half xG (1.06) is easy to misread as an open-play siege. Their combined match total is restart-heavy. Label set-piece sequences before claiming a territorial law.
- Progressive passes: Leicester 27 in each half; City 59 then 33. Advancement can fall in the second half while combined xG rises if the shots are restarts.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy. A thin denominator is too weak for a fitness ranking.
Limitations
- Half splits are still small samples. Six shots a half cannot support a structural law.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy (see footnote). Do not turn a half-to-half comparison into a pressing ranking.
- Event data has no distance run. Score state is 0–0 throughout.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 3
Transition board
Recoveries are even (57 vs 57). City’s positive rate is about 53% versus Leicester’s 26%. Leicester’s negative rate is about 37%, versus City’s 16%. That gap is a timed proxy. It still finishes 0–0.
Leicester City
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 57
- Positive transitions
- 15 (26.3%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 57
- Negative transitions
- 21 (36.8%)
Manchester City
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 57
- Positive transitions
- 30 (52.6%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 57
- Negative transitions
- 9 (15.8%)
Recovery = new possession after the opponent had the ball. Turnover = that possession ends. Positive rate = share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a progressive pass or a shot. Negative rate = share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window. It is not a fitness ranking.
Window: 10s after recovery/turnover for a progressive pass or shot. Approximate event-data proxies — not tracking. They do not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
How to read this
- Positive transition rate: share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a Progressive Pass (~12 m forward) or a shot.
- Negative transition rate: share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. Higher is more costly in this window.
- Winning the 10-second window is not the same as creating open-play xG. City trail on that layer.
Limitations
- Recoveries and turnovers are inferred from StatsBomb possession changes. Restarts and fouls make the counts approximate.
- “Positive” only means a Progressive Pass or shot followed within 10 seconds. It is not proof of a planned counter-attack.
- Event data has no sprint distances and no continuous off-ball picture.
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Visual 4
Shot map
City’s 20 markers include eleven set-piece-sequence shots and eight open-play shots. Leicester’s 12 include six of each. There are no filled goal dots. Read location with phase.
How to read this
- Start with location and quality, then ask how the chance started. Eleven City dots tied to corners, free kicks, and throw-ins are restarts.
- Leicester’s six open-play shots sum to more open-play xG than City’s eight. Volume of open-play attempts is not the same as quality of those attempts.
- Twenty versus twelve shots is a real volume gap. City’s extra attempts are concentrated in restarts, while Leicester’s open-play sample is the larger of the two.
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Visual 5
Pass network
Manchester City’s network is denser on more completed passes (~408 vs ~225). Density measures combination frequency. It does not explain the combined-xG gap by itself. Most of that gap is restarts, and Leicester still have the larger open-play xG sample.
How to read this
- Look for City hubs between build-up and the final third. Frequent combinations can support territorial presence. They do not automatically produce open-play box chances.
- Leicester’s lighter graph can still show real circulation. A thinner network is not proof they only defended.
- Game state is 0–0 throughout. The picture averages a stalemate, not a chase.
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Visual 6
Progressive passes
City complete more Progressive Passes in absolute terms (~92 vs ~54) on more completed passes. Progressive share is close (~24% vs ~23%). Combined xG favours City because of restarts. Open-play xG favours Leicester.
How to read this
- Separate absolute progressive volume from progressive share. Here shares are similar; City’s completed-pass volume is higher; City’s combined xG is higher because of set-piece sequences.
- Trace end zones. Progression that dies outside the box is different from progression that feeds open-play shot locations.
- A Progressive Pass is a completed pass with at least ~12 metres of forward gain on the StatsBomb x-axis. It is not Expected Threat (xT).
Related Learn lessons
Visual 7
Average positions
Average Positions compress a 0–0 into one picture. Use them with Heatmaps as a territorial hypothesis. Then check the Shot Map with set-piece and open-play labels before claiming City controlled a match with no goals.
How to read this
- City averages may sit higher when on-ball actions cluster toward Leicester’s goal. That is involvement location, not proof of open-play chance quality.
- Heatmaps (below) show density piles that a single average point can hide — especially for wide attackers or late substitutes.
- Form a question about height of involvement, then verify on video. StarkPitch does not print a Field Tilt number on this page.
Related Learn lessons
Putting it together
A responsible short report should separate City’s combined-xG lead from Leicester’s open-play xG edge. A 0–0 still has a phase split.
If you are following the Learn path, write five supported sentences from these visuals. Then note what still needs video, especially delivery type on City’s corners.
Practice prompt
In 150–200 words: write one claim about combined xG versus open-play xG in a 0–0, one claim about City’s positive-transition rate that stays inside the 10-second definition, and one limitation of reading this league match from event data alone. Link each claim to a visual above.
Concepts
Event data from StatsBomb’s public Premier League 2015/16 release. Coordinates use StatsBomb’s pitch model.