Match Analysis / FIFA World Cup 2022
Group Stage · November 23, 2022
Germany 1–2 Japan
Japan came from behind to win
New here? This page uses terms like xG, PPDA, and progressive passes. The free Foundations lesson explains them in a few minutes. Continue on the Learn path →
Sheikh Khalifa International Stadium · StatsBomb Open Data
Why this match is useful for learning
- Germany finished 1–2 against Japan in regulation. Recoveries are even (52 each). Positive transition rate is the share of recoveries followed within ten seconds by a Progressive Pass or a shot: Germany’s rate is higher (~50% vs ~42%). Combined xG (open play and set pieces together) still favours Germany (~2.77 vs ~1.25) from more shots (~26 vs ~12). The late scoreline is not proved by the recovery count. A larger combined total is not a verdict on the result.
Match context
Germany scored first and created many shots. Japan equalised, then took the lead and won 2–1.
For teaching, treat the full ninety minutes as one noisy sample. Strong claims need a clear scope, such as first half or second half. They also need humility about finishing variance.
Regulation
Figures below cover regulation. One-game xG edges are noisy, so use them as process descriptions, not verdicts. Transition rates use the 10-second window after a StatsBomb possession change.
- Germany
- 26 shots · 1 goal · ~2.77 xG
- Progressive passes: 143 (19.8% of passes)
- Japan
- 12 shots · 2 goals · ~1.25 xG
- Progressive passes: 60 (27.9% of passes)
Visual 1
xG Timeline
Germany’s cumulative combined xG (open play and set pieces together) leads throughout (~2.77 vs ~1.25). Japan’s two second-half goals include a very low-xG finish (~0.03). The line shows a process advantage. The scoreline shows finishing variance. This chart is not a verdict on the result.
The line adds xG when a shot is recorded. A flat stretch means no shot, not that nothing happened. This is not xT and not a possession-value chart. The line is not a verdict on the result.
- 32′ · Germany · İlkay Gündoğan · 0.78 xG
- 74′ · Japan · Ritsu Doan · 0.48 xG
- 82′ · Japan · Takuma Asano · 0.03 xG
How to read this
- Mark Germany’s first-half climb against Japan’s late cluster. Only a recorded shot moves this line.
- Compare goal markers with quality. A low-xG goal is not a modelling failure. It also does not erase the earlier process.
- A flat stretch means no shots, not no football. Possession without a shot will not move this line.
Limitations
- xG describes historical shot types. It does not measure build-up quality before the shot.
- A goal marker shows when the ball entered the net, not whether that chance was high xG.
- Single-match xG totals are noisy. Do not turn a rising line into a structural law.
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Visual 2
Half vs half
First half: Germany have 1.57 xG from 14 shots. Japan have 0.08 xG from one shot. Second half: Japan reach 1.17 xG and two goals. Germany still create 1.20 xG without scoring. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table.
| Metric | First half | Second half | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Japan | Germany | Japan | |
| xG | 1.57 | 0.08 | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| shots | 14 | 1 | 12 | 11 |
| Progressive passes | 90 | 18 | 53 | 42 |
| PPDA | 86† | 227† | 27.75 | 18.6 |
The table splits the same process by half: shots, xG, progressive passes. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table. Read shots and xG together. Then ask how much came from open play vs set pieces.
PPDA (teaching definition): opponent passes starting in their own half ÷ Tackle + Interception + Foul Committed by this team in the opponent’s half. A dash or † means the sample of defensive actions is empty or tiny — often a deep block, not a physical ranking. Do not read half changes as proven fatigue.
How to read this
- Germany’s first-half process sits beside Japan’s second-half burst. Score state is an allowed hypothesis.
- Japan’s second-half goals do not erase Germany’s 1.20 xG without a goal. Conversion noise cuts both ways.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy. A thin denominator is too weak for a fitness ranking.
Limitations
- Half splits are still small samples. A late swing does not prove a structural law.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy (see footnote). A thin denominator is often a deep block, not a physical ranking.
- Event data has no distance run. Do not read a second-half change as proof of tiredness.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 3
Transition board
Recoveries are even (52 each). Germany’s positive rate is about 50% versus Japan’s 42%. Negative rates are close (~27% vs ~25%). Even recovery counts beside uneven combined xG make sense once you read the 10-second window separately from the scoreline.
Germany
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 52
- Positive transitions
- 26 (50%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 52
- Negative transitions
- 14 (26.9%)
Japan
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 52
- Positive transitions
- 22 (42.3%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 52
- Negative transitions
- 13 (25%)
Recovery = new possession after the opponent had the ball. Turnover = that possession ends. Positive rate = share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a progressive pass or a shot. Negative rate = share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window. It is not a fitness ranking.
Window: 10s after recovery/turnover for a progressive pass or shot. Approximate event-data proxies — not tracking. They do not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
How to read this
- Positive transition rate: share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a Progressive Pass (~12 m forward) or a shot.
- Negative transition rate: share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. Higher is more costly in this window.
- Even recovery counts with a different positive window do not prove the comeback. These rates are not a verdict on the result.
Limitations
- Recoveries and turnovers are inferred from StatsBomb possession changes. Restarts and fouls make the counts approximate.
- “Positive” only means a Progressive Pass or shot followed within 10 seconds. It is not proof of a planned counter-attack.
- Event data has no sprint distances and no continuous off-ball picture.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 4
Shot map
Germany’s markers show heavy volume (~26 shots, ~2.77 combined xG) with one goal. Japan’s fewer attempts (~12 shots, ~1.25 combined xG) produce two goals. Read process and outcome as related but separate layers.
How to read this
- Compare volume and quality together. A large German combined xG total describes chance creation. It is not a verdict on the result.
- Locate Japan’s goals in space and time, then check video. Conversion from a smaller sample is normal football variance in one match.
- Ask which German attempts are long shots and which are box chances. Not every marker carries the same historical goal probability.
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Visual 5
Pass network
Germany’s denser network reflects higher on-ball volume. Japan’s lighter graph can still support dangerous transitions. Density measures combination frequency. It does not mean superiority.
How to read this
- Identify German hubs between build-up and the final third. Frequent combinations explain territorial pressure more than they explain finishing.
- Japan’s thinner network may hide effective vertical connections after recoveries — confirm with progressive passes and video.
- Game state matters: a team protecting a lead or chasing a deficit changes who combines where.
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Visual 6
Progressive passes
Germany progress more often in absolute terms (~143 vs ~60). Japan’s progressive share is higher (~28% vs ~20%) on fewer total passes. This separates control from efficiency of advancement.
How to read this
- Absolute progressive volume tracks who advanced the ball more often. Progressive share tracks how often completed passes gained territory.
- Pair with the shot map: German progression feeding many shots is a coherent process story even when conversion disappoints.
- A Progressive Pass is a completed pass with at least ~12 metres of forward gain on the StatsBomb x-axis. It is not Expected Threat (xT).
Related Learn lessons
Visual 7
Average positions
Average Positions compress ninety minutes of shifting states. Use them with Heatmaps to ask where pressure lived, especially after Japan’s equaliser changed the match.
How to read this
- German averages often sit higher when they dominate territory. Japanese averages may look deeper early and shift with match state.
- Heatmaps show density that a single average point can hide, especially for wide attackers or late substitutes.
- Form a question about pressing height or rest-defence, then verify on video before strong claims.
Related Learn lessons
Putting it together
A responsible short report should separate Germany’s chance-creation process from Japan’s conversion. It should say that single-match xG is noisy.
If you are following the Learn path, write five supported sentences from these visuals. Then note what still needs video and match-state timestamps.
Practice prompt
In 150–200 words: write one process claim about Germany’s shot volume or progression, one claim about Japan’s efficiency or match-state timing, and one sample-size limitation. Link each claim to a visual above.
Glossary
Event data from StatsBomb’s public World Cup 2022 release. Coordinates use StatsBomb’s pitch model.