Match Analysis / FIFA World Cup 2022
Quarter-finals · December 10, 2022
Morocco 1–0 Portugal
Morocco won in regulation
New here? This page uses terms like xG, PPDA, and progressive passes. The free Foundations lesson explains them in a few minutes. Continue on the Learn path →
Al Thumama Stadium · StatsBomb Open Data
Why this match is useful for learning
- Morocco won 1–0 with an En-Nesyri set-piece header (~0.20 xG) from a free-kick sequence around 42′. When a team wins the ball, sometimes it progresses or shoots within ten seconds — that share is the positive transition rate. Portugal did this more often (~58%) than Morocco (~44%). Negative transition rate is the share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within ten seconds: Morocco ~38%, Portugal ~17%. Portugal’s extra progression did not become the larger shot process. Combined xG (open play and set pieces together) is small (Morocco ~0.97, Portugal ~0.74). Open-play xG favours Morocco (~0.61 vs ~0.19). These rates do not explain the goal and are not a verdict on the result.
Match context
Morocco lead 1–0 from En-Nesyri’s first-half free-kick sequence. Portugal complete far more passes and far more Progressive Passes, but they do not score. There is no penalty and no extra time in this file.
Portugal’s higher positive transition rate is a timed window count. It is not a verdict on the result.
Regulation (first half and second half)
Figures below cover regulation. There are no in-match penalties. Transition rates use the 10-second window after a StatsBomb possession change. Open play and set pieces use the same shot labels as the other teaching matches.
- Morocco
- 9 shots · 1 goal · ~0.97 xG
- Progressive passes: 52 (28.3% of passes)
- Portugal
- 12 shots · 0 goals · ~0.74 xG
- Progressive passes: 128 (20.8% of passes)
Visual 1
xG Timeline
Morocco finish slightly ahead on combined xG (open play and set pieces together) (~0.97 to ~0.74). The only goal marker is En-Nesyri’s free-kick sequence around 42′ (~0.20 xG). Portugal’s line rises later without a goal. This chart is not a verdict on the result.
The line adds xG when a shot is recorded. A flat stretch means no shot, not that nothing happened. This is not xT and not a possession-value chart. The line is not a verdict on the result.
- 41′ · Morocco · Youssef En-Nesyri · 0.20 xG
How to read this
- Mark the 42′ set-piece goal against Portugal’s later shots that did not score. A progressive pass after a recovery does not move this line — only a shot does.
- Compare the goal’s quality (~0.20) with Portugal’s unconverted set-piece cluster. This is a shot the model can classify.
- Both combined totals are small. A ~0.23 xG gap in one knockout is usually too thin for a structural claim.
Limitations
- xG describes historical shot types. It does not measure whether a recovery should have become a shot.
- A goal marker shows when the ball entered the net, not whether that goal was the highest-xG chance of the match.
- A rising Portuguese line without a goal is not proof that the match should have gone to extra time.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 2
Half vs half
First half: Morocco have 0.55 xG from seven shots and the goal. Portugal have 0.21 xG from five shots. Second half: Morocco have 0.42 xG from two shots. Portugal have 0.53 xG from seven shots, and progressive-pass volume rises to 79 while xG stays modest. Read the first-half and second-half numbers after a 1–0. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table.
| Metric | First half | Second half | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | Portugal | Morocco | Portugal | |
| xG | 0.55 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| shots | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Progressive passes | 33 | 49 | 19 | 79 |
| PPDA | 53.75 | 27.2 | 22.6 | 22.33† |
The table splits the same process by half: shots, xG, progressive passes. Event data has no distance run. This is not a fatigue table. Read shots and xG together. Then ask how much came from open play vs set pieces.
PPDA (teaching definition): opponent passes starting in their own half ÷ Tackle + Interception + Foul Committed by this team in the opponent’s half. A dash or † means the sample of defensive actions is empty or tiny — often a deep block, not a physical ranking. Do not read half changes as proven fatigue.
How to read this
- Portugal’s second-half progressive-pass count rises from 49 to 79. Their second-half xG is 0.53 from seven shots. Advancement can rise without the shot process exploding.
- Morocco’s second-half shot sample is two attempts — too small for a structural claim. Score state is an allowed hypothesis.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy. Morocco’s first-half value sits on four opponent-half defensive actions; Portugal’s second-half value sits on three. Those denominators are too thin for a fitness ranking.
Limitations
- Two second-half Morocco shots cannot support a structural claim.
- PPDA here is a teaching proxy (see footnote). A high value or a thin denominator is often a deep block, not a physical ranking.
- Event data has no distance run. Do not read a second-half PPDA change as proof of tiredness.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 3
Transition board
Recoveries are almost even (54 vs 55). Portugal’s positive rate is about 58% versus Morocco’s 44%. Morocco’s negative rate is about 38% versus Portugal’s 17%. This is an event-data window, not tracking. It does not show how a team is set when possession is lost. It is not the goal.
Morocco
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 54
- Positive transitions
- 24 (44.4%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 55
- Negative transitions
- 21 (38.2%)
Portugal
- Recoveries (possession starts)
- 55
- Positive transitions
- 32 (58.2%)
- Turnovers (possession ends)
- 54
- Negative transitions
- 9 (16.7%)
Recovery = new possession after the opponent had the ball. Turnover = that possession ends. Positive rate = share of recoveries followed within 10 seconds by a progressive pass or a shot. Negative rate = share of turnovers after which the opponent progressed or shot within 10 seconds. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window. It is not a fitness ranking.
Window: 10s after recovery/turnover for a progressive pass or shot. Approximate event-data proxies — not tracking. They do not show how a team is set when possession is lost.
How to read this
- Portugal’s positive rate is about 58%; Morocco’s is about 44%.
- Morocco’s negative rate is about 38%; Portugal’s is about 17%. A higher negative rate means giving the ball away was more costly in this window.
- Winning the window is not the same as creating xG. Creating xG is not the same as scoring En-Nesyri’s free-kick sequence. These rates are not a verdict on the result.
Limitations
- Recoveries and turnovers are inferred from StatsBomb possession changes. Restarts and fouls make the counts approximate.
- “Positive” only means a Progressive Pass or shot followed within 10 seconds. It is not proof of a planned counter-attack.
- Event data has no sprint distances and no continuous off-ball picture of how a team is set when possession is lost.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 4
Shot map
Portugal’s 12 shots include eight set-piece-sequence attempts and four open-play attempts. Morocco’s nine include the free-kick-sequence winner and a larger open-play xG sample (~0.61 vs ~0.19). Read location with how the chance started. A headed restart is not a 10-second transition finish.
How to read this
- Start with location and quality, then ask how the chance started. En-Nesyri’s marker is From Free Kick. It is a shot the model can classify. It does not describe a recovery-to-shot within 10 seconds unless the events say so.
- Portugal’s restart cluster is volume without conversion. Eight set-piece-sequence shots can still sum below one converted 0.20 chance.
- Twelve versus nine shots is a small knockout sample. Portugal’s extra attempts did not become extra open-play xG. The deciding shot is a restart.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 5
Pass network
Portugal’s network is denser on more completed passes (~616 vs ~184). Density measures combination frequency. It does not overturn Morocco’s combined xG edge. It also does not turn Portugal’s transition rates into chance quality.
How to read this
- Look for Portuguese hubs between build-up and the final third. Frequent combinations can support territorial presence. They do not automatically produce box chances.
- Morocco’s lighter graph is expected beside a compact block. A thinner network is not proof that they did not try to play.
- Game state matters. The picture averages a 0–0 and a 1–0 into one graph.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 6
Progressive passes
A Progressive Pass is a completed pass with at least ~12 metres of forward gain on the StatsBomb x-axis. Portugal complete more of them in absolute terms (~128 vs ~52). Progressive share favours Morocco (~28% vs ~21%). Combined xG favours Morocco. Transition rates favour Portugal. Quote the layer you mean.
How to read this
- Separate absolute progressive volume from progressive share. Portugal’s volume is large. Morocco’s share is higher on a smaller completed-pass sample. Neither layer is the Transition board.
- A Progressive Pass inside 10 seconds of a recovery counts toward the positive transition rate. A Progressive Pass later in a settled possession does not. The map shows all of them; the board applies the window.
- Huge progressive volume can sit beside a flat shot process. This file adds a transition-rate gap — still without Portugal taking the shot-process lead.
Related Learn lessons
Visual 7
Average positions
Average Positions compress 0–0 and 1–0 states into one picture. Use them with Heatmaps as a territorial hypothesis. Then check the Transition board and the Shot Map before claiming Portugal’s higher averages should have produced a goal.
How to read this
- Portuguese averages may sit higher when on-ball actions cluster toward Morocco’s goal. That is involvement location, not a chalkboard formation for every second.
- Heatmaps (below) show density piles that a single average point can hide — especially for wide attackers or late substitutes.
- Do not read a deeper Moroccan average after they lead as a value judgment. The average mixes a 0–0 with a 1–0 deep block.
Related Learn lessons
Putting it together
A short report should quote Portugal’s higher positive transition rate and lower negative transition rate as timed event-data windows. It should not treat those rates as a verdict on the result. It should name En-Nesyri’s goal as a free-kick sequence.
If you are following the Learn path, write five supported sentences from these visuals. Then note what still needs video: how Morocco were set after turnovers, and delivery type on the deciding restart.
Practice prompt
In 150–200 words: write one claim about Portugal’s positive transition rate that stays inside the 10-second definition, one claim that the deciding goal is a set-piece sequence rather than a transition finish, and one limitation of reading second-half Portuguese volume from event data alone. Link each claim to a visual above.
Concepts
Event data from StatsBomb’s public World Cup 2022 release. Coordinates use StatsBomb’s pitch model.